First poll after Labour leadership change

Noted has published details of a ‘snap’ online poll conducted for The Listener as part of its Election Barometer series. The poll has a sample size of 1175 and is representative of the national population. Respondents were canvassed between 5pm Tuesday 1 August and 11:30am Wednesday 2 August.

It is the first major poll to capture public opinion in the aftermath of the Labour leadership change. As it did in June, The Listener has chosen to include undecided voters in the result. The numbers are as follow: National 39%, Labour 23%, Greens 12% and NZ First 8%.

But it is misleading to include the undecided in these results. If the undecided are removed, the picture we get is more consistent with other polling:

National 45% (+1)
Labour 27% (+3)
Greens 14% (-2)
NZ First 9% (-1)

So as of yet there has been no major shift in party support. Yes, support for Labour is up. But it remains under 30%. I think the more interesting observation is the small increase of support for National.

Could it be that the threat of a centre-left government will lead some conservative voters to leave NZ First for National? Of course this is one poll. We will have to wait and see what other pollsters come up with before any trend can be discerned.


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